RISK MODELLING OF HEAVY MOBILE EQUIPMENT TO DETERMINE OPTIMUM REPLACEMENT AGES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7166/28-4-1591Keywords:
risk, Modelling, Simulation, Replacement, OptimisationAbstract
Maintenance and physical asset managers often have to decide when a major asset needs to be replaced. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to determine the optimum replacement age of heavy mobile equipment that is close to the end of its life. The study was conducted on an old electric rope shovel used at a surface coal mining operation. The failure impact and failure probability estimates of components were obtained from subject matter experts through Delphi analyses. A stochastic-and-parametric-estimation modelling solution was developed to perform quantitative risk analyses using their inputs. The solution calculated the expected loss of the rope shovel as a function of machine-age within a 90 per cent confidence interval. The study demonstrated that the optimum replacement age of heavy mobile equipment can be obtained by modelling the expected losses due to the failure of critical end-of-life components, taking into account the uncertainty in data obtained from subject matter experts.
Downloads
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish in the Journal agree to the following terms:- Authors retain copyright and grant the Journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this Journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the Journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this Journal.
