MODELLING THE IMPACT OF MINING ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT - A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Authors

  • George Maluleke University of Pretoria
  • Leon Pretorius University of Pretoria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7166/27-4-1133

Keywords:

Relative Attractiveness, Beneficiation, Socio-economic Development, System Dynamics

Abstract

The contribution of mining activities to social infrastructure and human development is a complex socio-economic development issue in South Africa. Complexity theory has introduced a new approach to solving problems in social systems, recognising them as complex systems. The socio-economic development system in South Africa falls into this category of complex systems. Analysing such a system requires that a number of feedback loops and details about the issues be analysed simultaneously. This level of complexity is above a human’s ability to comprehend without the aid of tools such as systems thinking and system dynamics. The causality between investment in infrastructure capacity and socio-economic development is dynamic. The relationship is influenced by exogenous feedback that, if not managed, is likely to reverse itself. This paper presents the results of a system dynamics modelling of the relationship, based on the principle of relative attractiveness developed in previous system dynamics research. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to determine the sensitivity of the system to changes in feedback. The paper concludes that the limits to growth in a socio-economic environment are determined by more factors than the availability of capital, and also include land capacity constraints and skills shortage. 

Author Biographies

George Maluleke, University of Pretoria

General Manager. Projects 

Kumba Irone Ore (pty) Ltd

 

Leon Pretorius, University of Pretoria

Graduate Shool of Engineering and Technology Management

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Published

2016-12-06

How to Cite

Maluleke, G., & Pretorius, L. (2016). MODELLING THE IMPACT OF MINING ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT - A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH. The South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 27(4), 66–76. https://doi.org/10.7166/27-4-1133

Issue

Vol. 27 No. 4 (2016)

Section

General Articles

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