USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO QUANTIFY THE COST IMPACT OF SYSTEMIC RISK FACTORS IN A PROJECT PORTFOLIO: A CASE STUDY

Authors

  • Francois Jacobus Joubert Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Stellenbosch
  • Martin Snyman

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7166/32-4-2518

Abstract

In terms of project risk management, ‘systemic risk’ is identified as risks which are artefacts of the environment which a project is executed in, and are related to (i) the project team’s actions, (ii) how project controls are managed and interact, and (iii) how the project is planned and executed. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the cost impact of systemic risk on a portfolio of projects by using risk quantification and Monte Carlo simulation, in the absence of a validated parametric risk model, to estimate the systemic risks in an entire portfolio of projects. The case study simulation results indicate a significant effect of systemic risks on the project portfolio risk profile, where systemic risks increased the P80 value of the contingency requirement by +85.6%. The successful management of systemic risk would contribute to project success by limiting unnecessary waste.

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Published

2021-12-14

How to Cite

Joubert, F. J., & Snyman, M. (2021). USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO QUANTIFY THE COST IMPACT OF SYSTEMIC RISK FACTORS IN A PROJECT PORTFOLIO: A CASE STUDY. The South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 32(4), 67–82. https://doi.org/10.7166/32-4-2518

Issue

Vol. 32 No. 4 (2021)

Section

General Articles

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