USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO CREATE A RANKED CHECK LIST OF RISKS IN A PORTFOLIO OF RAILWAY CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Francois Jacobus Joubert, Leon Pretorius

Abstract


When introducing quantified risk assessments at a South African state-owned freight company, a skills gap was found during the identification and quantified risk analysis. To help with risk identification, a checklist of risks for railway construction projects was developed. The basis of this checklist was 38 individual railway construction project risk registers that were collated into a single risk register. After the risks had been cleaned up and classified, a Monte Carlo simulation using @Risk software was done that produced a ranked check list of risks. This list of risks is valuable because subject matter experts developed it, and can be used as a risk identification checklist by stakeholders in similar projects. The simulation results also showed that project scope is an influencing factor on the ranking of risks.


Keywords


monte carlo; project risk management

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7166/28-2-1604

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Copyright (c) 2017 Francois Jacobus Joubert, Leon Pretorius


ISSN 2224-7890 (on-line) ; ISSN 1012-277X (print)


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