SOME ASPECTS OF THE USE AND USEFULNESS OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Authors

  • Francois D Hugo University of Pretoriaa
  • Leon Pretorius University of Pretoria
  • Siebert J Benade University of Pretoria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7166/29-4-1821

Keywords:

Project risk management, quantitative tools, utilisation levels, survey results

Abstract

Central to project management is risk management — and the need to develop better and more specific tools to manage risk. This is driven by the desire to reduce uncertainty and risk on projects. Quantitative tools such as Monte Carlo simulation are sometimes used to analyse risk, but it is not clear how widespread, accepted, or useful such tools are for practising project personnel. This research was undertaken to gain feedback from practising project and risk management personnel about the use of risk management tools. Special attention was given to the levels of use of quantitative risk management tools and the benefits gained from their use. A conceptual framework was created linking the factors that affect tool use to the actual tool use levels, and ultimately to project performance. Research questions reported on in this paper addressed levels of tool use, factors that affect tool usage, and the benefit aspect of tool use on project performance. Data were gathered via an on-line questionnaire that was statistically analysed, and a number of hypotheses were tested. The results of this study show that the levels of use of both qualitative and quantitative risk management tools are low compared with general project management tools. Correlations were found between a number of factors that affect tool use.

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Author Biography

Leon Pretorius, University of Pretoria

Leon Pretorius has more than 40 years professional, engineering, academic, and academic management experience. He holds the degrees D Eng, MSc Eng, MSc Math, BSc Eng Hons, BSc Hons Math from the University of Pretoria. He was professor at the University of Johannesburg, South Africa until 2007. In 2004 he was the last Dean of Engineering at the Rand Afrikaans University prior to the merger of RAU and TWR when he became Executive Dean of Engineering and the Built Environment at the University of Johannesburg in 2005. He is currently Professor in the Graduate School of Technology Management at University of Pretoria. He has concurrently been active as specialist consultant and researcher in engineering industry since 1980, He has supervised more than 230 Master and PhD students in engineering as well as engineering and technology management on their Master research projects, Master Dissertations and Doctoral Theses. This includes the supervision of 50 successful PhD doctoral theses. He has also published more than 240 technical conference papers and peer reviewed journal articles as author and co-author in his fields of expertise. He is an Honorary Fellow of SAIMechE, member of SAIIE, Member of ASME and Member of IEEE. . He is rated as researcher by the National Research Foundation (NRF) in South Africa. He has received ESKOM Tesp Grants for more than 22 years.

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Published

2018-12-10

How to Cite

Hugo, F. D., Pretorius, L., & Benade, S. J. (2018). SOME ASPECTS OF THE USE AND USEFULNESS OF QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT. The South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 29(4), 116–128. https://doi.org/10.7166/29-4-1821

Issue

Vol. 29 No. 4 (2018)

Section

General Articles

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