@article{Yadavalli_Bekker_2011, title={STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR COMMON CAUSE FAILURES AND HUMAN ERROR}, volume={16}, url={http://sajie.journals.ac.za/pub/article/view/177}, DOI={10.7166/16-1-177}, abstractNote={<p>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A consistent asymptotic normal (CAN) estimator and confidence limits for the steady-state availability of series and parallel systems subject to unit failures, common-cause shock (CCS) failures and human error are studied. This paper also deals with the estimation from a Bayesian viewpoint with a number of prior distributions assumed for the unknown parameters in the system, which reflect different degrees of belief on the failure mechanisms. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to derive the posterior distribution for the steady-state availability and subsequently the highest posterior density (HPD) intervals. A numerical example illustrates the results.</p><p>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: ’n Konsekwente asimptotiese normaalberamer en vertroueintervalle vir die ewewigstoestandsbeskikbaarheid van stelsels in serie en parallel, wat onderworpe is aan eenheids-, gemeenskaplike skok- en menslike foutfalings, word bestudeer. In die artikel word ook ’n Bayes-benadering gevolg vir die beraming deur ’n aantal a priori-verdelings vir die onbekende parameters in die stelsel, wat verskillende grade van vertroue in die falingsmeganismes weerspie}, number={1}, journal={The South African Journal of Industrial Engineering}, author={Yadavalli, V.S.S. and Bekker, A.}, year={2011}, month={Nov.} }