A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE NAMIBIAN MUTTON INDUSTRY

D.N. Van Wyk, N.F. Treurnicht

Abstract


ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Agricultural activities in Namibia contribute 5.5% of Namibias GDP, while 70% of the population relies on agriculture for employment and day-to-day living. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between the various price and non-price factors contributing to the supply dynamics within the mutton industry in Namibia. The autoregressive distributed lag approach to co-integration was used to determine the longrun and short-run supply response elasticities between economic and climatology factors on time-series data.
Supply shifters showed significant short-run and long-run elasticities with regard to the mutton produced. Results also revealed that the system takes nearly two months to recover to the long-run supply equilibrium, should any disturbances occur within the supply system.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Landbou-aktiwiteite in Namibidra 5.5% by tot die nasionale Bruto Binnelandse Produk, in n land waar meer as 70% van die bevolking afhanklik is van landbou om n bestaan te kan maak. Die doel van hierdie studie is om die verwantskappe te ondersoek tussen verskeie prys- en nie-prys-faktore wat bydra tot die aanboddinamika van die skaapvleisbedryf. n Outoregressie verspreide sloering benadering tot ko-integrasie is gebruik om die langtermyn en korttermyn elastisitiete tussen ekonomie- en klimaatfaktore vir skaapvleisaanbod te bepaal.
Resultate het gewys dat aanbodfaktore betekenisvolle kort- en langtermyn elastisiteite toon. Resultate het ook getoon dat die sisteem twee maande neem om te herstel na die langtermyn aanbodekwilibruim, sou daar enige drastiese veranderings gebeur in die stelsel.


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.7166/23-1-231

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