RISK MODELLING OF HEAVY MOBILE EQUIPMENT TO DETERMINE OPTIMUM REPLACEMENT AGES

Carl Kirstein, Jacobus Krige Visser

Abstract


Maintenance and physical asset managers often have to decide when a major asset needs to be replaced. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to determine the optimum replacement age of heavy mobile equipment that is close to the end of its life. The study was conducted on an old electric rope shovel used at a surface coal mining operation. The failure impact and failure probability estimates of components were obtained from subject matter experts through Delphi analyses. A stochastic-and-parametric-estimation modelling solution was developed to perform quantitative risk analyses using their inputs. The solution calculated the expected loss of the rope shovel as a function of machine-age within a 90 per cent confidence interval. The study demonstrated that the optimum replacement age of heavy mobile equipment can be obtained by modelling the expected losses due to the failure of critical end-of-life components, taking into account the uncertainty in data obtained from subject matter experts.


Keywords


risk, Modelling, Simulation, Replacement, Optimisation

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7166/28-4-1591

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Copyright (c) 2017 Carl Kirstein, Jacobus Krige Visser


ISSN 2224-7890 (on-line) ; ISSN 1012-277X (print)


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